(Photo by Christopher Burns on Unsplash)
No-one knows with complete certainty what's going to happen in the future. The same applies when it comes to exactly how the nature of work will change as cheaper and extremely powerful technology permeates almost every aspect of out daily lives.
However we do know that things will change, and we can identify likely trends. Research institutes can look at how technology is augmenting or replacing routine manual and cognitive work tasks, and how trends are likely to continue and accelerate.
Where the real uncertainty starts is when we look at possible outcomes of these trends. Will jobs be lost and not replaced? Will lots of new jobs be created so that there are enough for everyone? Will people have the right skills? Will the lack of skills slow down the growth of and access to new jobs? How quickly will things change? We don't know.
What we can do is look at some of the research out there, become informed, start a conversation about what skills and competencies might be needed, what this means for our students, teachers, schools, learning systems, communities and societies.
This post is our small way of starting this conversation. We are sharing a range of research and commentaries based on global trends designed to get us thinking about automation, disruption of work, learning and action we can take. Each week, we will share a range of articles and research about where exponential technologies, disruptive innovation and learning intersect, and this week's focus is about the automation and disruption of work.
Please read, think, share, comment and join the conversation.
How will automation change the work that people do?
The Future of Skills: Employment in 2030 is a research paper that uses a unique methodology (including machine learning) to predict the demand for skills in the UK and US in the year 2030. It concludes which occupations are likely to grow or decline to varying degrees of certainty, and produces what the authors believe are a series of actionable skills, highlighting the importance and growth of 21st Century Skills and certain knowledge fields. The conclusions on Page 110 provide an excellent summary of the research, along with an explanation of risks and opportunities.
The digital future of work: What will automation change? from McKinsey is an interview series filmed at the Digital Future of Work Summit in New York, and a transcript is provided. The interviewees agree that the Fourth Industrial Revolution (4IR) has already started and that jobs will change dramatically, but have different perspectives about potential positive and negative outcomes.
Harnessing automation for a future that works is another McKinsey piece that argues that while automation is inevitable, it won't happen overnight and in the medium term humans and machines will probably work alongside one another, and those workers whose jobs are lost will probably find other employment.
The Future of Work. Technology Will Kill Your Job. Here's How. from medium.com is fairly unequivocal about the risks posed to human work posed by automation, and argues that while it's not all bad news human adaptability and new economic approached will be essential to overcome societal challenges.
Are you prepared for a future of tech-driven job disruption? Chances are, you're on your own is a South China Morning Post opinion piece based on the WEC 2018 Future of Jobs Report (below) and a SCMP workshop the author attended. He accepts that work is changing rapidly and is concerned about who is responsible for up-skilling workers - companies or the workers themselves?
Automation: The exaggerated threat of robots take an African perspective of this issue, and argues that due to very low labour costs, a difficult digital/technical environment and global productivity African jobs are safe from automation for now, and the threat has been overstated.
And to conclude this section we have a presentation titled Technology at Work: The future of Automation by Michael A Osbourne which takes a broad, visual approach to emerging trends in areas such as machine learning, current impact on different industries, the importance of social intelligence, and how automation can create jobs.
What practices are emerging in response to automation and disruption of work?
Jobs Lost, Jobs Gained: Workforce transitions in a time of automation from McKinsey examines potential labour market disruptions from innovation and potential sources of new labour demand, together with implications for skills and wages. It's a large body of work, so have a look at the brief and summary of findings near the start. Key findings include:
the significant benefits of AI and robotics
that about half of all human activities have the potential to be automated
the demand for work by humans could actually increase
huge workforce changes are ahead
income polarisation could grow
the importance of worker retraining
4 Key Practices for Up-skilling Workers In The Age Of Digital Transformation from Forbes looks at the responsibility of companies to up-skill their workers. Suggestions include the use of AR and VR to engage in learning, personalised learning, helping employees build new work patterns as a result of learning, and linking the training to return on investment.
21 Jobs of the Future - A guide to getting - and staying - employed over the next ten years is a white paper from Cognizant that proposes 21 new jobs that will emerge over the next 10 years based on all major observable macroeconomic trends in the world today. Visual, well-written, informative and persuasive, this is a must-read.
From the World Economic Forum (WEF)
The WEF is a gold mine of information about the Fourth Industrial Revolution and how work is changing. There is an extensive global research body and frequent reports that are easy to read. See these examples about work and automation below.
How future-proof are your skills? - the results of an Instagram Q&A about skills and jobs for the future.
The Fourth Industrial Revolution and the factories of the future - how 4IR is fundamentally transforming production.
Here are 5 ways for workers to win in the robot age - how the jobs landscape is changing, and recommendations for all stakeholders.
5 things to know about the future of jobs - key information from The Jobs Landscape in 2022.
In the future of work it's jobs, not people, that will become redundant - why we need to learn, unlearn and relearn throughout our lives.
The Future of Jobs Report 2018 - a summary of the latest research and likely trends in work to the year 2022.
Thank you for following us this week. We welcome any and all feedback on this new weekly format, and please email me at firstname.lastname@example.org with any questions or suggestions you have.